Commercial aviation forecast
All signs point to progress
Commercial aviation shows signs of air traffic returning to pre-COVID levels. Despite inflation, the conflict in Ukraine, and other economic and socio-political issues, commercial air travel is steadily increasing – and so is the demand for talent. Encouraged by the increased demand, airlines continue to invest in new aircraft and technology to bolster their operations and enhance the customer experience.
1,180,000
new commercial aviation professionals needed over the next 10 years
Commercial aviation talent demand by region
Driving the demand for air travel
As individuals and families hung tight during the pandemic, their savings grew, as well as their 'cabin fever’. People had disposable income and a desire to travel, which created a sharp rise in air travel demand coming out of the pandemic. Experts expect the industry to recover to the 2019 traffic level in 2024, with North America leading the pack in 2023, followed by Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East in 2024, and Africa and Asia Pacific in 2025. Should the forecast prove to be accurate, the industry will have recovered from its worst crisis in history within four years, with a rate of recovery five times faster than the growth observed in the past 20 years.
Source: IATA
Source: IATA
Airlines are reinventing themselves
Airlines had the opportunity to reassess their business and operating models. Many airlines scaled back on international travel due to border closures. This shifted the focus to domestic networks. This naturally meant that widebody aircraft flying took a big dip. However, newer narrowbody aircraft with longer range capabilities seemed to be quite flexible for either domestic or international networks.
Fast forward
Now narrowbody aircraft make up
64% of the fleet in 2023
as opposed to 58% in 2022
64% of the fleet in 2023
as opposed to 58% in 2022
39%
Commercial aviation fleet growth over the next 10 years
Commercial aircraft in service
31K
43K
2023
2032
Source: Aviation Week Forecast
A gap in the pipeline
Over 45,000 commercial airline pilots will be required to retire from flying in the next ten years - representing almost 27% of the commercial airline pilot population in the United States.
Source: FAA
Source: FAA
Early retirements of pilots during the pandemic only exacerbated the current challenges in the industry. When a seasoned captain retires from the airline, this triggers a cascade of events across the pilot supply chain.
Seasoned mainline captains retire
Mainline captains move up in the ranks to backfill for retirements
Mainline first officers are promoted to captain
Regional captains become mainline first officers
Regional first officers are promoted to captain
Regional airlines facing shortage of new first officers
252K new commercial pilots needed over the next 10 years
Active
2023
351K
Remain active
252K
Replacement
99K
Growth
153K
2032
504K
Active
351K
2023
504k
153k
99k
252k
Growth
Replacement
Remain active
2032
328K new commercial aircraft maintenance technicians needed over the next 10 years
Active
193k
2023
361k
168k
160k
33k
Growth
Replacement
Remain active
2032
Active
2023
193K
Remain active
33K
Replacement
160K
Growth
168K
2032
361K
599K new cabin crew needed over the next 10 years
Active
2023
535K
Remain active
180K
Replacement
355K
Growth
244K
2032
779K
Active
535k
2023
779k
244k
355k
180k
Growth
Replacement
Remain active
2032
What can be done to supply the demand?
1.
Create programs to support career development
2.
Educate potential candidates earlier in their academic path
3.
Engage in more modern outreach techniques targeting Generation Z
4.
Ease the transition of military professionals into the civil aviation workforce
5.
Lower entrance barriers by offering financial aid, work-study opportunities, and sponsorships, and scholarships
6.
Survey target audiences to determine the stigmas that exist when it comes to a career in aviation to ease recruiting
Bringing the industry into the 21st century
Talent takes on all shapes and colours and we need to approach this search for new recruits with an open mind. Let’s let talent dictate how far a person goes with their career. Employers will relieve the strain on resources by diversifying the workforce via proactive recruiting of women and underrepresented groups.
